Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Statistical Inevitabilities

"Sic transit gloria Favre? That's not quite Latin, but the splendor of one of football's best-ever quarterbacks seems fading fast."
-Gregg Easterbrook, NFL dot com

I hate Monday Night Football. Actually, no. I don't. I hate what Monday Night Football brings out in my son. Geoff, as of late, has become semi-obsessed with football. Who is playing whom and where and when. What the team record is. Who the field goal kicker guy is. Who the team has to face next so they have to win this week because next week is just going to be so difficult.

His obsession borders on Rainman and Wopner. Monday night games are the hardest because they start at 9pm, when he should be winding down for bed. Instead he is running around singing along with Boceifus and yelling "Are you ready for some footbaaaaaaaallllllll! All my rowdy friends are here for Monday night! Wooooooo!" and at 11 pm I am forcing him to go to bed, and he decries the fact that he might miss something exciting.

Last night the Packers played the Vikings. I was relatively certain the Pack would win, because they usually do well at home. The added layer of historical statistics in the fact that Brett Favre always wins at home if the temperature is under 32 degrees made me feel relatively confident in their abilities against a team that always plays in a dome at home and has played warm weather or domed games most of this season so far.

Geoff heard that trivia, and I had to explain it to him a bit more clearly. In his mind that set up the lead pipe cinch on this game. The Pack was going to wih, and he thought it was awesome. When I forced him to bed the Pack were ahead, there was one quarter left, and I felt there was no need to worry.

This morning, first thing he does out of bed is jump online to get the score because they're not giving it fast enough for his liking on the radio. He is pissed beyond belief. The Pack lost by a field goal in the final minutes and couldn't come back to at least tie it and head into overtime. The score was 20-17.

"But it was under 32 degrees! Brett Favre always wins ... (cry) at home when it's (sniff, blubber) under 32."

"Honey, that's just an interesting piece of trivia. Last night was the first time he's not had that statistic work out for him. I was really upset the Monday night last year when Bill Cowher brought the Steelers to Monday Night Football and they lost, when for years and years Bill Cowher had NEVER lost a Monday Night game. Ever. There is a first time for everything. And last night was the first time in Brett's nice, long career that he's lost at home under 32 degrees."

There is indeed always a first time for almost everything, isn't there? One of my favorites is when the sports play by play guys are up in the booth and they are jabber jawing about how this particular quarterback has NEVER been intercepted on a Sunday after 2pm when the wind is from the east and the temp is over 67. And what happens on the VERY next play? Bada bing, picked off. It is almost like they KNOW this is going to happen. And last night was no different when Al Michaels was blabbing about Brett and 32 degrees and Geoff got all excited. It happens. Statistics aren't steel clad. They're just guidelines and they're interesting.

But my son doesn't get that. To him, a statistic like Brett and the temperature is brought down from the Mountain by Moses and has been sent from the mouth of the Lord. It is veritas. It is truth. It is written in stone. He just can't wrap his head around a statistical inevitability like yeah, one day -- that kicker is NOT going to make the kick from 40 yards when he has been 100% from that line for his entire career. Brett might just lose when mother nature wraps us in frosty cloak. Bill Cowher and the Chin Of Power may just get punched out on a Monday Night. At Home.

The unthinkable can happen.

So very unaccepting of the fact the Pack went down in flames, Geoff is on the couch, crushed. I worry about him when he gets like this. I don't want him to grow up and bet on games based simply on the temperature. Hell, I don't want him to grow up and do anything more than a little office pool like I do. I just want him to go to school and have a good day. And at 6:45 in the morning, it ain't starting out so good.

Another thing that he is facing is one of his favorite players, Brett Favre, simply isn't having the best season ever. He's having an incredibly bad season as a matter of fact. And to an 8 year old who has watched him pull victories like rabbits out of a hat while the lion is chomping on the magician's ass, this does not bode well.

But it is statistically inevitable. Injuries, lack of a good, strong offensive receiving line, more injuries, and to top it off age are all slowing Brett down. I don't want to watch him end his career with a crappy season. I would love to see him ride out into the sunset with guns a'blazin' and the ball hitting every receiver right in the numbers. No more sacks for a loss of yardage. No more horrible interceptions at clinch points in the game. But. That isn't happening this year.


I will say it is a joy to have him interested in something, especially now that he can read really well. He spends a lot of time reading player profiles and team histories. He is very interested in punters and place kickers.

Here's a gem of Geoff philosophy for you this morning: "Everyone WANTS to be the Quarterback when they are playing football, but no one realizes how important the punter and kicker guys are."

True.

I just wonder what he's going to spend his time obsessing about after the Super Bowl.


Well, I need to get him ready and get breakfast and get showered. I worked until 7 last night and may do it again tonight. It's a short week and I have to make sure I get everything done and set for the week ahead.

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